Cain Marko: I’m not here to discuss his great handle, his
court vision, his ability to finish at the hoop, or any of that. I’m here
to discuss what makes Steph Curry tick.
It’s shooting.
We’ve talked about this before, but if shooting is just a
combination of muscle memory and hand eye coordination, then it’s surprising
that no one has mastered the half court shot. In this era of spacing you’d
think some Blake Hoffarber-esk guy who can’t jump would spend a year of his
life, practicing and practicing until he can hit 37% from half court. You
can’t tell me there isn’t room and a couple million dollars on an NBA bench for
that.
And then we come to Steph Curry, I don’t know the stats on
his half court heaves, but he’s hitting one just about every other game. At
some point it stops being a novelty and starts being a true weapon. We’ve
already seen this year that he’s as good from 3 or 4 feet behind the line as
anyone else in the league is from three. You have to go over every screen.
What happens when the start setting screens out on the logo? Do you still
have to go over the screen?
Walter Kovacs: You’re absolutely right. He’s on a
whole different level, and the implications are staggering. What he’s
doing right now is Ruthian. Back in the 1920’s, everyone was hitting for
singles, and the Babe was like, nah- I think I’ll go all the bases at
once. In 1920 Ruth hit 54 homers to lead the American league, and Cy
Williams led the NL with 15. In 1927- Ruth smacked 60, and Williams and
Hack Wilson led the NL with 30.
Right now Steph is just playing a different game. I
think we’ll remember him as someone who kicked off a new era of basketball-
nodding their heads are all the AAU kids who are switching from practicing
dunks to practicing shooting from long-range. To me the real question is
what happens to the game as a whole. 3 point attempts continue to go up,
and Steph is the poster child. As players like Steph make the 3 a higher
percentage shot that’s also worth more- does the game shift to one that’s
played mostly between the arcs? Does the league take steps to counter
it?
Right now, Steph and Golden State have something unique
going on. To your point, last night he was BEING GUARDED out at the half
court line, and still made the buzzer beater. Everything about that is
insane, and with range like that, you basically have to play him like
that. And that also opens things up for the team because of that fear.
I’m content to just watch and enjoy for now, but imagine if there were 6 Stephs
in the league with unlimited range, or 20- which might not be unheard of since
shooting is a skill that is more or less egalitarian (not everyone is able to
fly like MJ, or be huge like Shaq, but anyone can practice shooting).
What would be the broader future implications?
CM: I absolutely
agree. After a season of 5th
grade basketball, in which I fouled out of most games, my father, pulled me
aside and said, “I know this is hard to hear, but there is a reason you come
from a family of wrestlers. You will
never be Michael Jordan.” And he was
right. But if Curry had existed then,
who knows? That dream would have been
much more attainable.
Another thought I had. Do you think anyone has
calculated the defensive value of being a good three point shooting team?
Picture two scenarios:
LeBron breaks into the paint, rises up avoiding contact,
slams the ball in to the hoop, and then falls and skids to a stop against the
padded back of the hoop. Warriors grab the ball and have it headed back down
the court while LeBron is still on his back. LeBron then has to get up
and sprint back down to get into position.
Conversely, the Warriors are kicking the ball around with 4
behind the arc and Bogut just standing there trying not to get in the way.
Green sets a screen for Curry out beyond the 3 point line. Curry rises
up, shoots the ball and starts walking backward. He’s at the top of the
key before the ball even goes in the net. And the whole team, except
Bogut, are already back on the defensive side of the court, without even having
to run.
Now Curry is nowhere near the defensive player LeBron is (or
any of the top slashing wings) but a Curry who is already back in position
without having to use any energy and with the defense already set up behind him
is probably going to give up less points then a LeBron who is on the run.
We see it time and time again. Half court offense is
hard. Transition points are easy. The longer 3s you can make, and
the more people who are a threat to make them, the better your defense is.
That’s my theory at least.
I came up with it after watching this
video of Curry’s 3 pointers against the Thunder. First, just
watch how far back and how well covered he is when he shoots. But then go
back a second time and watch where Curry is when the ball goes in the hoop and
watch where the rest of the Warriors are by the time the ball gets inbounded.
WK: This is a very
strong point. I read/listen to a lot of Zach Lowe, and he has recently done some investigating into the lost art of offensive rebounding- teams are ignoring
potential offensive boards to minimize transition points. Yet another
benefit of the 3 is longer rebounds that favor incidental offensive boards, and
if not, assists transition D. They’re probably presenting a paper on this
at the Sloan Conference right now.
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